{"method_version":"KFL-M 1.6 (2026-10-18)","label":"estimate","footnote":"A screening estimate, not a feasibility study or a bankability finding. Every term is derived from public data on stated assumptions: the generator size is what the latest-year flared gas could fuel continuously if all of it were captured; people without access use a state rural access proxy; security counts recorded attacks, not current risk. Gas rights, offtake, tariff, licensing, land and community consent are not assessed. Households servable are supply-side (what the gas could power), not a count of households who would connect.","scope":"delta","scope_label":"Niger Delta (onshore, inside the nine-state boundary)","aggregate":{"national":{"scope":"national","scope_label":"Nigeria (every GFMR flare site)","sites":476,"sites_screened_in":149,"opportunities":40,"electric_potential_MW":2018,"households_servable":13000000,"people_not_grid_lower_bound":3200000,"median_score_screened_in":67,"screened_out_by_gate":{"security":22,"onshore":70,"power":271,"demand":56},"notes":{"opportunities":"screened-in sites grouped by leader clustering: the best-scoring site leads, sites within 20 km of it (overlapping 10 km catchments) join; one mini-grid opportunity each","electric_potential_MW":"sum over screened-in sites of the generator size the latest-year flared gas could fuel continuously; supply-side","households_servable":"supply-side: households the gas could power at 1.2 MWh/yr each, not households who would connect","people_not_grid_lower_bound":"sum of the lead sites' people within 10 km without access; leads are more than 20 km apart so their 10 km circles do not overlap, which makes this a lower bound","supply_vs_demand":"the households servable figure is what the gas could power; at most sites it is larger than the unserved population nearby, so the surplus would need a grid connection or an industrial buyer"},"label":"estimate"},"delta":{"scope":"delta","scope_label":"Niger Delta (onshore, inside the nine-state boundary)","sites":405,"sites_screened_in":149,"opportunities":40,"electric_potential_MW":2018,"households_servable":13000000,"people_not_grid_lower_bound":3200000,"median_score_screened_in":67,"screened_out_by_gate":{"security":22,"power":247,"demand":3},"notes":{"opportunities":"screened-in sites grouped by leader clustering: the best-scoring site leads, sites within 20 km of it (overlapping 10 km catchments) join; one mini-grid opportunity each","electric_potential_MW":"sum over screened-in sites of the generator size the latest-year flared gas could fuel continuously; supply-side","households_servable":"supply-side: households the gas could power at 1.2 MWh/yr each, not households who would connect","people_not_grid_lower_bound":"sum of the lead sites' people within 10 km without access; leads are more than 20 km apart so their 10 km circles do not overlap, which makes this a lower bound","supply_vs_demand":"the households servable figure is what the gas could power; at most sites it is larger than the unserved population nearby, so the surplus would need a grid connection or an industrial buyer"},"label":"estimate"}},"method":{"score":"weighted mean of the component scores (0 to 100) that have an input; weights of missing terms are renormalised (weights_used < 1 marks it)","weights":{"access_gap":0.27,"power":0.23,"demand":0.18,"security":0.22,"solar":0.1},"scales":{"access_gap":[1000,200000],"power":[0.1,10],"demand":[1000,100000],"demand_near_km":5,"demand_far_factor":0.5,"security_per_attack_10km":20,"security_per_attack_10_25km":2,"security_rising_trend":15,"solar":[4,5.5]},"gates":{"onshore":"not offshore","power_min_MW":0.1,"people_not_grid_min":1000,"energy_attacks_10km_max":2},"cluster_km":20,"clustering":"leader clustering, no chaining: best-scoring unassigned screened-in site leads, unassigned screened-in sites within cluster_km of it join, repeat","ranking":"screened-in sites first, then by score, then by MW; rank_national is the rank over every site","components":{"access_gap":"people within 10 km without grid access: GRID3 population x (1 - state rural access proxy, NDHS 2024)","power":"generator MW the latest-year flared gas could fuel continuously (core.powerGap)","demand":"largest named centre within 25 km (GRID3), discounted with distance","security":"recorded attacks on oil, gas and power infrastructure within 10 and 25 km since 2015 (Oxford/Inuwa 2026, CC BY 4.0) and the ACLED LGA political-violence trend","solar":"global horizontal irradiation at the site (Global Solar Atlas 2, World Bank / Solargis, CC BY 4.0); ranks hybrid solar + gas sites higher"},"gap_assumptions":["gas energy 0.01 MWh per m³ (thermal, higher heating value of methane-rich gas)","generator electrical efficiency 40% (simple-cycle gas turbine / gas engine)","capacity factor 0.85","1.2 MWh per household per year (100 kWh/month; just under the ESMAP Multi-Tier Framework Tier 4 floor of 1,250 kWh/yr)","people without access = GRID3 pop10km × (1 − state rural access proxy, NDHS 2024 state rate × national rural/total ratio)","latest-year flared volume only; assumes all of it could be captured and that the flare continues"]},"sources":{"volume":"World Bank GFMR flare-location estimates 2012-2025, June 2026 release","population":"GRID3 NGA Population v3.0 and Settlement Points (CC BY 4.0)","access":"World Bank WDI 2024; Nigeria DHS 2023-24 (NPC & ICF)","security":"Oxford / Inuwa, Leonard, Hirmer 2026 (CC BY 4.0), zenodo.org/records/15974757; ACLED via HDX (LGA aggregates)","solar":{"dataset":"Global Solar Atlas 2, long-term annual averages (GHI, PVOUT)","publisher":"World Bank / ESMAP; solar resource data by Solargis","licence":"CC BY 4.0","service":"https://api.globalsolaratlas.info/data/lta?loc={lat},{lon}","site":"https://globalsolaratlas.info","layer_version":"2.2.68","layer_updated":"2026-04-01","period_to":"2025","pvout_method":"PV simulation model","retrieved":"2026-10-18","responses_sha256":"092ca716e21c26ec6ee6e4532b56f4099c09229fc4c0426e994ba66d34a9ac11","points":476,"missing":[],"range_ghi_kwh_m2_day":[4.24,5.45],"attribution":"Global Solar Atlas 2.0, a free, web-based application developed and operated by Solargis s.r.o. on behalf of the World Bank Group, utilizing Solargis data, with funding provided by ESMAP.","substitution":"The build brief named the KTH Solar Potential GHI file on energydata.info; its download is behind a browser challenge and cannot be fetched by a script, so the World Bank Global Solar Atlas (same licence) is used instead."}},"count":405,"sites":[{"rank":1,"site_id":"s_3908","field_name":"Umusadege","operator":"Midwestern O&G","lat":5.733795553,"lon":6.394824593,"state":"Delta","niger_delta_class":"niger_delta","in_niger_delta":true,"niger_delta_label":"Niger Delta — Delta State","siting_score":90,"screened_in":true,"failed_gates":[],"gates":[{"id":"onshore","pass":true,"rule":"onshore (an offshore flare needs a gas line to shore before it can feed a mini-grid)"},{"id":"power","pass":true,"rule":"gas could fuel at least 0.1 MW"},{"id":"demand","pass":true,"rule":"at least 1,000 people without access within 10 km"},{"id":"security","pass":true,"rule":"2 or fewer energy-infrastructure attacks within 10 km"}],"components":{"access_gap":{"score":89,"value":110000,"basis":"110,000 people within 10 km without grid access (GRID3 pop10km x (1 - state rural access proxy 41.9%)); 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