{"method_version":"KFL-M 1.6 (2026-10-18)","label":"estimate","footnote":"A screening score for triage, not a feasibility study or an investment recommendation. Every term is a normalised estimate from public data on stated assumptions; the weights are judgement calls, published so they can be challenged. It does not assess gas rights, offtake, tariff, licensing, land, community consent, capex or returns. Recorded attacks describe the past, not current risk, and satellite non-detections can be cloud.","scope":"national","scope_label":"Nigeria (every GFMR flare site)","tiers":{"public":["screening score, per-site components, methodology, underlying open inputs (GFMR volume, FIRMS persistence and FRP, population, access, incident overlay, solar)","everything on this public surface is reproducible from open sources on stated assumptions"],"partner":["verified operator and facility registry, measured flow and gas-composition validation, offtake and PPA price scenarios, tariff and grid stress tests, project-level investment memos, full data-pack export and API, ongoing monitoring","requires a partnership engagement and our official-capacity data licence: contact@kaliabe.ng"]},"aggregate":{"national":{"sites":476,"scored":158,"gated":318,"bands":{"A":20,"B":75,"C":56,"D":7,"gated":318},"score":{"n":158,"min":45,"p10":57,"p25":61,"p50":67,"p75":71,"p90":75,"max":81,"iqr":10,"sd":7.1,"distinct":32},"ungated":{"n":476,"min":33,"p10":47,"p25":52,"p50":57,"p75":63,"p90":71,"max":81,"iqr":11,"sd":8.9,"distinct":45},"components_scored":{"consistency":{"n":158,"min":17,"p10":38,"p25":47,"p50":60,"p75":72,"p90":79,"max":88,"iqr":25,"sd":16.3,"distinct":62},"demand":{"n":158,"min":23,"p10":41,"p25":52,"p50":70,"p75":77,"p90":85,"max":93,"iqr":25,"sd":16.4,"distinct":56},"security":{"n":158,"min":14,"p10":53,"p25":62,"p50":76,"p75":85,"p90":91,"max":95,"iqr":23,"sd":16.9,"distinct":50},"viability":{"n":158,"min":42,"p10":68,"p25":70,"p50":73,"p75":76,"p90":78,"max":80,"iqr":6,"sd":7.6,"distinct":20}},"gated_by":{"onshore":70,"power":271},"label":"estimate"},"delta":{"sites":405,"scored":158,"gated":247,"bands":{"A":20,"B":75,"C":56,"D":7,"gated":247},"score":{"n":158,"min":45,"p10":57,"p25":61,"p50":67,"p75":71,"p90":75,"max":81,"iqr":10,"sd":7.1,"distinct":32},"ungated":{"n":405,"min":36,"p10":49,"p25":53,"p50":58,"p75":64,"p90":71,"max":81,"iqr":11,"sd":8.5,"distinct":42},"components_scored":{"consistency":{"n":158,"min":17,"p10":38,"p25":47,"p50":60,"p75":72,"p90":79,"max":88,"iqr":25,"sd":16.3,"distinct":62},"demand":{"n":158,"min":23,"p10":41,"p25":52,"p50":70,"p75":77,"p90":85,"max":93,"iqr":25,"sd":16.4,"distinct":56},"security":{"n":158,"min":14,"p10":53,"p25":62,"p50":76,"p75":85,"p90":91,"max":95,"iqr":23,"sd":16.9,"distinct":50},"viability":{"n":158,"min":42,"p10":68,"p25":70,"p50":73,"p75":76,"p90":78,"max":80,"iqr":6,"sd":7.6,"distinct":20}},"gated_by":{"onshore":0,"power":247},"label":"estimate"}},"spread":{"scored":158,"gated":318,"score":{"n":158,"min":45,"p10":57,"p25":61,"p50":67,"p75":71,"p90":75,"max":81,"iqr":10,"sd":7.1,"distinct":32},"ungated":{"n":476,"min":33,"p10":47,"p25":52,"p50":57,"p75":63,"p90":71,"max":81,"iqr":11,"sd":8.9,"distinct":45}},"method":{"score":"weighted mean of the four component scores (0 to 100); each component is a weighted mean of normalised terms (0 to 100); weights of missing terms are renormalised (weights_used < 1 marks it); a failed hard gate sets the score to 0 and score_ungated keeps the value before the gate","weights":{"consistency":0.28,"demand":0.34,"security":0.26,"viability":0.12},"terms":{"consistency":{"record":0.3,"volume":0.25,"trend":0.15,"persistence":0.2,"intensity":0.1},"demand":{"unserved":0.45,"access":0.1,"proximity":0.2,"centre":0.25},"security":{"lethality":0.4,"conflict":0.35,"trend":0.25},"viability":{"demand_gate":0.3,"security_gate":0.3,"solar":0.4}},"scales":{"record_years":5,"volume":[0.25,100],"trend_falling_zero_pct":-80,"trend_neutral":{"not_significant":0.5,"new":0.6,"inactive":0},"intensity_frp":[0.5,20],"unserved":[1000,200000],"access":[50,15],"proximity_km":[2,20],"attacks_band_weight":{"km10":1,"km10_25":0.15,"km25_50":0.03},"attacks_saturate":10,"recency_years":8,"recency_floor":0.5,"recency_ref_year":2026,"context_floor":0.6,"lethality_saturate":20,"conflict_saturate":300,"sec_trend":{"declining":1,"none recorded":1,"flat":0.7,"rising":0.3},"flag_quiet_min_million_m3":50,"flag_live_min_nights":2},"bands":{"A":75,"B":65,"C":55,"D":0},"band_labels":{"A":"strong screening case: gas, demand and security all hold up","B":"workable: one component needs a closer look","C":"marginal: weak on at least one of the three questions","D":"weak: the screen finds little to build on","gated":"screened out by a hard gate (offshore, or gas under the minimum generator size)"},"hard_gates":{"onshore":"not offshore","power_min_MW":0.1},"raw_units":"bright_ti4 (K) and FRP (MW) are published as inputs; only FRP enters the score, normalised on a log scale; bright_ti4 is not scored (it saturates near 367 K and is warmed by daytime sun)","firms_window":{"nights":8,"first":"2026-10-09","last":"2026-10-17","excluded_nights":["2026-10-13"],"rule":"a night counts only if at least one site had a night-time detection on it; a night with none anywhere is a missing file, not a dark night","snapshot":"bundled at deploy time, so the score is reproducible; the live map reads the daily refresh"},"not_scored":{"households_servable":"Households the gas could power at 100 kWh a month if all of it were captured. Shown, not scored: it is the latest-year volume restated, and volume is already scored under consistency.","dominant_state":"State where most nearby recorded attacks happened. Shown, not scored: a state-wide penalty would mark down quiet sites in a busy state.","bright_ti4":"shown as an input only"},"ranking":"by investable score, then ungated score, then latest-year volume; rank_national is over every site","reproduce":"node scripts/build_invest.mjs runs this Worker on data/gfmr_nigeria_sites_seed.json and writes web/public/data/invest.json"},"glossary":{"invest_score":"Investable score, 0 to 100: a weighted mean of consistency (28%), demand (34%), security (26%) and viability (12%). A triage score for deciding which sites to look at first, not an investment recommendation.","band":"Grade band from the investable score: A 75 and up, B 65 to 74, C 55 to 64, D under 55. Gated means a hard gate failed and the score is set to 0. Bands are fixed cut-offs, not re-fitted when the data refreshes.","score_ungated":"The score before the hard gates are applied, published so a gated site (for example an offshore flare) can still be compared.","weights_used":"Share of the weights that had an input. Below 1 means a term had no data and the remaining weights were scaled up.","consistency":"Is the fuel reliable? Years the World Bank satellite record saw this flare, how much gas it burned in the latest year, the direction of the trend, and how often NASA satellites saw it burning in the last nights.","demand":"Is there someone to sell power to? People nearby without grid access, how far the nearest settlement is, and the size of the main town within 25 km.","security":"Is it safe enough to build and operate? The record of attacks on oil, gas and power infrastructure nearby, weighted by distance and age, sets the ceiling; deaths, local political violence and its trend move the score within it. Many attacks close by cannot be offset by a quiet trend.","viability":"Would the 1.5 siting screen keep it? Its two soft gates (enough unserved people, few attacks within 10 km) and the solar resource for a hybrid plant.","record":"Share of the last 5 years (2021 to 2025) in which the World Bank GFMR satellite record detected this flare. Five of five means the gas has been there every year.","volume":"Gas flared in the latest year, million cubic metres (World Bank GFMR). Scored on a log scale, so a site ten times larger gains a fixed step rather than ten times the points.","trend":"Direction of the flare: mean of the last 3 years against the up to 5 years before. Falling gas is a shrinking fuel supply; rising is scored the same as stable, not higher.","persistence":"Share of recent nights NASA FIRMS (VIIRS on Suomi NPP, NOAA-20 and NOAA-21) detected heat at this site on a night pass. Cloud counts as a miss, so this is a lower bound; a single warm pixel moves the total score by under one point.","intensity":"Mean fire radiative power per detection, from NASA FIRMS, normalised on a log scale (0.5 to 20 MW). Day and night detections both count. Blank when the site was not detected in the window.","bright_ti4":"bright_ti4: brightness temperature of the hottest pixel in the VIIRS I4 band (3.7 micrometres), in kelvin. Shown as an input only: it saturates near 367 K and daytime sun warms it, so it is not used in the score.","frp":"FRP, fire radiative power: the heat the fire radiates, in megawatts, estimated by NASA from the satellite pixel. A bigger, steadier flare has a higher FRP.","nights_window":"Nights in the FIRMS window that had data. A night with no detection at any site is treated as a missing file and left out.","unserved":"People within 10 km estimated to have no grid electricity: GRID3 population times (1 minus the state rural access proxy). Log scale, 1,000 to 200,000.","access":"State rural access proxy: the share of rural people with electricity, from the 2024 Nigeria DHS state rate times the national rural to total ratio. Lower access scores higher. It is a state-wide figure, the same for every site in a state.","proximity":"Distance to the nearest GRID3 settlement. Full credit within 2 km, none beyond 20 km: every kilometre is distribution line to build.","centre":"The largest named settlement within 25 km (GRID3), scored on its size and discounted with distance; the same term as the 1.5 siting screen.","households_servable":"Households the gas could power at 100 kWh a month if all of it were captured. Shown, not scored: it is the latest-year volume restated, and volume is already scored under consistency.","attacks":"Recorded attacks on oil, gas and power infrastructure since 2015 (Oxford / Inuwa et al. 2026), weighted by distance (within 10 km counts 1, 10 to 25 km 0.15, 25 to 50 km 0.03) and by age (see recency). Log scale; 10 or more weighted attacks scores 0. This term multiplies the security score, so it acts as a ceiling.","recency":"Years since the most recent recorded attack within 25 km (else 50 km). The attack count is weighted in full if that attack was this year, falling to half if it was 8 or more years ago. Folded into the attacks term, not scored on its own.","lethality":"Deaths in recorded energy-infrastructure attacks within 25 km since 2015. Log scale; 20 or more scores 0.","conflict":"Political-violence events (ACLED) in the last 12 months in the local government areas touching the 25 km circle. Area counts overstate what lies strictly within 25 km, so the scale is gentle: log, 300 or more scores 0.","sec_trend":"ACLED political-violence trend in the same area: last 12 months against the 12 before. Rising lowers the score; declining or none recorded scores full marks.","dominant_state":"State where most nearby recorded attacks happened. Shown, not scored: a state-wide penalty would mark down quiet sites in a busy state.","demand_gate":"1.5 siting gate: at least 1,000 people without access within 10 km.","security_gate":"1.5 siting gate: 2 or fewer energy-infrastructure attacks within 10 km.","solar":"Global horizontal irradiation at the site (Global Solar Atlas 2), so a hybrid solar and gas plant ranks higher.","hard_gates":"Hard gates: the site must be onshore (offshore gas needs a line to shore) and its gas must fuel at least a 0.1 MW generator. Failing either sets the score to 0.","flags":"Flags mark sites where the two satellite sources disagree. They do not change the score; they say what to check first.","band_margin":"Points between the score and the nearest band cut-off. Under 3 means a small change in the weights could move the site into the next band; read such sites as on the line."},"sources":{"volume":"World Bank GFMR flare-location estimates 2012-2025, June 2026 release","live_thermal":"NASA FIRMS VIIRS 375 m NRT (Suomi NPP, NOAA-20, NOAA-21), nights 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-17","population":"GRID3 NGA Population v3.0 and Settlement Points (CC BY 4.0)","access":"World Bank WDI 2024; Nigeria DHS 2023-24 (NPC & ICF)","security":"Oxford / Inuwa, Leonard, Hirmer 2026 (CC BY 4.0), zenodo.org/records/15974757; ACLED via HDX (LGA aggregates)","solar":{"dataset":"Global Solar Atlas 2, long-term annual averages (GHI, PVOUT)","publisher":"World Bank / ESMAP; solar resource data by Solargis","licence":"CC BY 4.0","service":"https://api.globalsolaratlas.info/data/lta?loc={lat},{lon}","site":"https://globalsolaratlas.info","layer_version":"2.2.68","layer_updated":"2026-04-01","period_to":"2025","pvout_method":"PV simulation model","retrieved":"2026-10-18","responses_sha256":"092ca716e21c26ec6ee6e4532b56f4099c09229fc4c0426e994ba66d34a9ac11","points":476,"missing":[],"range_ghi_kwh_m2_day":[4.24,5.45],"attribution":"Global Solar Atlas 2.0, a free, web-based application developed and operated by Solargis s.r.o. on behalf of the World Bank Group, utilizing Solargis data, with funding provided by ESMAP.","substitution":"The build brief named the KTH Solar Potential GHI file on energydata.info; its download is behind a browser challenge and cannot be fetched by a script, so the World Bank Global Solar Atlas (same licence) is used instead."}},"count":476,"sites":[{"rank":1,"site_id":"s_3922","field_name":"Nkali","operator":"Heirs Energies","lat":4.982592472,"lon":7.11761859,"state":"Rivers","niger_delta_class":"niger_delta","in_niger_delta":true,"invest_score":81,"band":"A","band_margin":6,"score_ungated":81,"gated":false,"failed_hard_gates":[],"weights_used":1,"flags":[],"components":{"consistency":{"score":85,"weights_used":1,"terms":{"record":{"score":100,"value":5,"basis":"GFMR detected the flare in 5 of the last 5 years (2021 to 2025)","label":"estimate"},"volume":{"score":98,"value":87.2,"basis":"87.2 million m3 flared in 2025; log scale 0.25 to 100","label":"estimate"},"trend":{"score":100,"value":1343.7,"basis":"trend rising (+1,344%); rising scores the same as stable","label":"estimate"},"persistence":{"score":50,"value":4,"basis":"detected on 4 of 8 nights by NASA FIRMS VIIRS night passes (2 daytime detections not counted here); 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linear 4 to 5.5","label":"estimate"}}}},"label":"estimate","siting_score":83,"siting_screened_in":true,"siting_rank_national":11,"inputs":{"latest_year":2025,"latest_year_vol_million_m3":87.2,"trend_label":"rising","trend_pct":1343.7,"electric_potential_MW":40,"households_servable":250000,"firms_nights_detected":4,"firms_window_nights":8,"firms_detections":11,"firms_night_detections":9,"firms_mean_bright_ti4_K":325.1,"firms_mean_frp_MW":4.21,"firms_last_seen":"2026-10-17T01:07Z","people_within_10km_not_grid":180000,"pop10km":345089,"rural_access_proxy_pct":47.9,"nearest_settlement":"Itali Odogwa","nearest_settlement_dist_km":0.12,"main_centre_25km":"Rumuolumeni","main_centre_25km_pop":147993,"main_centre_25km_dist_km":24.86,"energy_attacks_10km":0,"energy_attacks_25km":1,"energy_attacks_50km":4,"deaths_25km":0,"most_recent_attack_year":2022,"dominant_state":"Rivers","acled_pv_area25_12m":31,"sec_trend":"declining","ghi_kwh_m2_day":4.45},"rank_national":1},{"rank":2,"site_id":"s_3908","field_name":"Umusadege","operator":"Midwestern O&G","lat":5.733795553,"lon":6.394824593,"state":"Delta","niger_delta_class":"niger_delta","in_niger_delta":true,"invest_score":81,"band":"A","band_margin":6,"score_ungated":81,"gated":false,"failed_hard_gates":[],"weights_used":1,"flags":[],"components":{"consistency":{"score":70,"weights_used":1,"terms":{"record":{"score":100,"value":5,"basis":"GFMR detected the flare in 5 of the last 5 years (2021 to 2025)","label":"estimate"},"volume":{"score":79,"value":27.7,"basis":"27.7 million m3 flared in 2025; 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